The final post! As expected, I feel considerably less informed–or at least less certain–about the 2009 season than prior to these brief write-ups. Admittedly, I follow the NL East more than any other division and even here I have trouble coming up with any sound reasoning for my predictions. It’s hard, also, to try and tease out too much information from spring training–players have not yet regained their form, others are in the WBC, and many starters are playing less so that coaches and managers may see more of the prospects and players on the bubble. With this, I’ll be back to posting about twice monthly and looking forward to your comments and contributions.
1. New York
2. Philadelphia
3. Florida
4. Atlanta
5. Washington
The top of the NL East will likely go to either the Mets or Phillies again, but the Braves and Marlins should be improved, and, really, any of those teams can pose a threat if they get hot enough. After some deliberation, I selected the Mets to win the division for two reasons. First, they are a strong team that plugged a few of last season’s serious holes. And second—psychological issues or not—it’s hard to see this team this good losing three division titles in consecutive years. That being said, the elephant in the room has to be the two consecutive September collapses, easily New York’s biggest adversary at this point. Will Jerry Manuel make a difference as a manager in full season? Can Carlos Delgado continue with his 2008 second half performance? And come April, who will John Maine and Oliver Perez show up as?
To many, the Phillies are picked to win the division and my putting them in second has no great rationale. If anything, I’ve enjoyed these last few years of heightening Mets-Phillies rivalry. The Phils are still solid on paper and now more confidant than ever. While I don’t know what to make yet of Ibanez, I don’t think losing Burrell will leave them with any deficit. I know the hot-cold relationship the city has had with him many be missed, but not his inconsistency. The Phils got some great performances from some unsuspecting pitchers last year, and I would suspect that success in 2009 will be less dependent on any offensive attributes than the combined efforts of Myers, Blanton, and Moyer. What are we to reasonably expect from these three–inconsistency, earned runs, and old age, or maturity, innings and experience?
Florida, Florida, Florida. Watch out for Florida! That seems to be all I hear from many baseball reports. They are young, they are talented and they can win the division, we are told. Anyone can win the division in March. I was a little surprised at some of the personnel Florida got rid of this past off season, but I have to think that Michel Hill knows more about what’s better for the Marlins than I do. They should be exciting to watch this year and perhaps a surprise team, but will they go out and spend money if they need something come mid-summer? Will attendance hurt them more than anything? I suspect the Marlins will be competitive and a pain in the butt for other teams, but will they suffer from the same South Florida problems they have the last few years?
Poor Atlanta. They owned this division for 15 years and yet for the last few years haven’t been able to put enough wins together to ascend to third place. Atlanta made some moves this off season to improve their pitching–their obvious strength when they were collecting division titles like spare change. Starters Lowe and Kawakami should keep them in more games, however, they did nothing to bolster their offense, which, after Brian McCann, appears to be propped up by an ageing Chipper Jones and free-swinging Jeff Francoeur. Much like the Dodgers, though, the Braves biggest asset has to be their manager, Bobby Cox, who has to be scheming up something to try and prevent Atlanta from another 90-loss season.
I think that the Nationals anticipate more success than the rest of us see coming from them. They apparently have talent to spare in the outfield, and overall they are young and exciting, but there is very little proven talent on this team–particularly in their starting pitching. They virtually have to improve over last year’s (MLB’s worst) record, but I can’t identify any argument that puts them in anything beyond fourth place. If they overachieve and Atlanta and Florida suffer some major injuries, they may be able to flirt with third place, but so long as John Lannan is their ace, they won’t pose a divisional threat. Like so many small-market teams, they continue to field a young and inexperienced team and convince themselves that maturation is just around the corner.
