The first thing that comes to mind when thinking about the NL Central is lack of stratification among the teams. Every other division in baseball has one or two strong teams that have a relatively clear path to the top as well as some teams that will likely be plunging faster than the stock market. And to be sure, there are stronger and weaker teams in the NL Central, too, just not perceptibly as strong or weak as in other divisions. Here’s what I’m thinking.
1. Cubs
2. St. Louis
3. Pittsburgh
4. Cincinnati
5. Houston
6. Milwaukee
After last season, the Cubs have demonstrated they are capable of commanding the division. And equally capable of all-out collapse. Aside from dumping DeRosa—can anyone explain that to me?—their offense should resemble its 2008 form. And if Bradley fits in Chicago, look out. What I do worry about with the Cubs is their starting pitching. Zambrano is an ace anywhere, and aside from Lilly’s penchant for fly balls he should be reliable, but everyone else raises some questions. Harden could be the best No. 2 starter in the NL, but he’s out too much to be reliable. He averages only 17 starts a season (even with an optimistic 25 starts, who starts the remaining 10?) and doesn’t pitch late into games. Dempster had a career year in 2008, but is it unrealistic to think he can win 17 again? Who will the fifth starter be? All in all, Chicago’s not too far from a great rotation if they can coax some repeat performances and turn Marmol into a reliable closer. How things turn out below the Cubs is anyone’s guess.
Every team has some obvious strength and weakness and believes they have it in them to contend for at least the wild card. However, among the five remaining, St. Louis is arguable the most proven team. They have a respectable lineup featuring Pujols and the basis of a good rotation. With another great year from Lohse and a strong Carpenter and Wainwright back, they may be formidable. The Cardinals obvious weakness (and concern) is their bullpen, which was among the worst in baseball last year. Late-inning improvements will need to be made if they want to pose a threat to the Cubs or anyone else. What is predictable with the Cardinals is La Russa’s ability develop a no-name player while simultaneously destroying the career of an established veteran. Who will this year’s contestants be?
In truth, I have little reason to place the Pirates in third place. But I have no reason to put anyone else there, either. The Bus are young and exciting, which, to me, gives them points. I won’t compare them to the 2008 Rays, but they do have a couple starters capable of double-digit wins (Maholm, Duke, Snell) and a solid bullpen. The entire pitching staff is young, which means they may be durable, but they will also need to improve with age. They field well—fifth best in the NL last year—and led the league in assists. McLouth, LaRoche and Doumit are probably underrated in terms of hitting, but would likely need to have simultaneous career years to make up for the fact that Pittsburgh won’t be spending money on a middle-of-the-lineup bat. Don’t expect greatness from the Steel City in 2009, just the slight chance of a surprise. In addition, there are worse ways to spend a summer night than watching youth, enthusiasm, and good defense in a historic, small-market team.
Cincinnati, like Pittsburgh, is another team waiting for the future that just doesn’t seem to come. I’ve read a couple of articles lamenting the loss of both Dunn and Griffey, but don’t see this as a real concern. Aside from the home runs, neither batter above .245 and Dunn’s home runs were accompanied by numerous strikeouts. Like the Bucs, the Reds have a young offense—Votto, Phillips, and Bruce—that simply needs to improve with age and sould make up for the veteran loss. What’s underrated is the Reds rotation, particularly the front end of Harang, Volquez, and Arroyo. The Weathers-Cordero combination should also remain strong. I expect the Reds to be fun to watch and competing with the Pirates as the team to watch in 2010.
Houston is probably a better team than I give them credit for. They have an above-average offense, but likely not as potent as Chicago or even St. Louis considering the ups and downs of players like Tejada, Matsui, and Bourne. And considering that the Astros couldn’t even sign Wigginton or Wolf, it’s doubtful they would add anything significant. What’s more likely to be the story in Houston is the rotation. After Oswalt—still one of the best—there are some major concerns. Am I the only person who is worried about Hampton, a pitcher who hasn’t had a decent season in five years? He could be a bonus, but hardly reliable at this point in his career. Rodriguez, Backe, and Mohler (the remaining projected starters) are acceptable starters for fourth and fifth spots, but may struggle as they are called upon to fill the second and third spots. Paging Ben Sheets.
Although the Brewers are better than a last-place team, I have them here because they are the only team in the division that took a marked step backward during the offseason. So much of their success in 2008 was linked to the two people that will soon be a distant memory—Sabathia and Sheets. Even when the Brewers were contending last year, they weren’t dominating. They won their spot on the last day of the season after an embarrassing personnel change in the middle of September. Of all divisions, this one may be the hardest to predict the bottom of, and—perhaps unfairly—I have the Brewers are there. A solid offense and one or two promising starters could easily keep them out the basement, but I would be surprised to see them vying for a playoff spot come August. And now that we’ve settled down from last season, can we get the old, yellow-mitt logo back, please?
