The west should be a marginally better division in 2009 than it was in 2008. It practically has to be. The division was won with 84 wins last year and had the winning team not imported Manny Ramirez at the last minute, .500 could have easily earned a playoff spot. While it’s easy to lament divisionally-poor play—especially if your 2nd or 3rd place team in another division suffers with a better record—that’s just they way divisions ebb and flow. The West may have—hopefully—hit rock bottom last year, and there are at least a few things to be excited about for this season.
1. Arizona
2. San Francisco
3. Los Angeles
4. Colorado
5. San Diego
Arizona played well for much of the season last year. They really took their foot off the gas at the end, and for that, lost a very winnable division. The Diamondbacks have a great front of their rotation and what could amount to a very competitive back end if Garland makes the transition and Scherzer comes to. But pitching isn’t really the concern for Arizona. The Diamondbacks were second in major league baseball in strikeouts in 2008 and the results was seriously diminished production. There are always some guys who will strikeout more than others, Reynolds, for example, and good teams can get around it. But having five guys with over 100 Ks (one over 200) not only helps the opposing teams immensely, but eliminates the possibility of productive outs. Just putting the bat on the ball for guys like Young and Upton will quickly reduce those strikeouts and lead to more hits and productive outs. And with a productive—not even powerful—offense, Arizona has the pitching to carry them into October.
As I’m writing this, Manny Ramirez has just agreed to the Dodgers and I still have no inkling of switching the Giants with the Dodgers. If you know me, you know I prefer good pitching over good hitting. And the Giants have good pitching. Just imagine if Johnson can stay above .500 and Zito has flashbacks of brilliance! While the Giants could be on the level with Arizona as far as pitching is concerned, they have to be weaker offensively; the Giants offense is truly amateur hour. The best-case scenario would be that a healthy Rentaria, Rowand and Winn could keep them in enough games to stay competitive and—more importantly—encourage Sabean to sign a legitimate cleanup hitter, especially if they are still in the mix by mid summer. It’s hard to see them going very far with this lineup, but wins could build up against the weaker teams in the division and Johnson could have enough in the tank for one last hurrah.
The Dodgers took one step backward this offseason. The step was a little smaller with the signing of Manny, but still backward. Their starting pitching is considerably shallower than last season and with the departure of Lowe and Penny the new guys will have a lot of innings to make up for. The Dodgers lineup might actually be one of the better ones in the West, but that’s still counting on the young guys to up their production and for Manny to produce like he did for the Dodgers last year. I’m actually a huge fan of Manny as a player, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to have him stealing the headlines mid-summer if the Dodgers have shown no inclination to compete and Manny decides he doesn’t want to spend his remaining years closing in on the bottom of a weak division. If the Dodgers have something going for them, it has to be Joe Torre. Like him or not, he wins and if he can pull a rabbit out of his hat in 2009, nobody will be talking about the problems with their rotation.
Losing Holliday and Francis this offseason may have stamped the Rockies ticket to fourth place. Colorado should have a healthy Helton back, but Holliday (.321, 25, 88) can’t be replaced and it’s hard to see their overall offense improving much. Perhaps the bigger blow was the loss of Francis this spring. Although limited in his effectiveness last season, Francis is a huge part of the Rockies rotation, a rotation which now weighs heavily (and maybe entirely) on Aaron Cook. Jimenez will need a breakout year and Marquis will have to be more than the question mark he is every spring to compensate for Francis, but I wouldn’t have my hopes up if I were a Rockies fan.
San Diego didn’t do much in the offseason—other than try to unload their best pitcher. I’m betting in 2009 that they can lose one more game than they did in 2008 to reach the 100-loss mark. With all due respect to Brian Giles, Gonzalez is the only threat in an otherwise impotent lineup. Blanco and Eckstein shouldn’t change the outcome, just the formula. Peavy continues to shine though he’ll be gone as soon as the Padres can find someone to meet their demands. Until then, he’ll win every fifth day, which I suspect to be most of the Padres wins. Young is respectable, but the remainder of the rotation and bullpen are unknowns. Bud Black has one more year on his contract and I imagine by August he’ll be counting the days.
