Injuries, Omar, and a Helmet

In what has to be one of the great baseball disappointments of the season, the 2009 New York Mets–SI.com’s preseason pick to win the World Series–entered September with 59 wins.  In the National League, only Washington, Pittsburgh, and San Diego have fewer wins.  Granted the Mets have furnished a virtual All-Star disabled list and are operating an active roster at a fraction of their opening day payroll.  So it’s not entirely their fault–or is it?  Some signs throughout the season have suggested that all these injuries may only be the tip of the iceberg.

Twenty Mets have seen time on the disabled list, highlighted by Reyes, Delgado, and Perez in May; Beltran, Putz, and Maine in June; Sheffield in July; and Wright, Santana, Cora and Perez (again, thankfully) in August.  What’s the big deal, though?  Every team has some guys on the DL at some point in the season, right?  Sure, but generally not the combination of starters and run-producers that the Mets have seen in 2009.  But even if we shake our heads and chalk it up to being part of the game, we can’t ignore the incompetence of what lies beneath the surface.

Carlos Delgado was hoping to be back by late July or early August, and as of September we don’t even hear his name.  Jose Reyes was initially listed as day-to-day and it would seem–4 months later–that this is referring to a correct diagnosis.  John Maine went on the 15-day DL with arm fatigue.  Still haven’t rested up enough after 3 months, Johnny?  Thank God Carlos Beltran is scheduled to be back for the last week of the season–that’ll help.  What’s going on here?  Who is doing the diagnosing?  Why are so many of these injuries vague and prone to continue developing after the player is on the DL or while rehabbing?  Even George Bush has to be impressed with Mets eschewing of timetables this season.

So the team has been destroyed by (mismanagement of) injuries; aren’t there farm systems to help bolster times like these?  Weren’t the Mets once known for their home-grown talent?  Not anymore.  All the Nick Evanses and Daniel Murphys in the system can’t right this ship.  Although some recent trades have benefited the Mets in that many of the traded-away prospects have yet to pan out, certainly there have to be questions as to who exactly is stocking their farm system.  And not only has their been little help from the minors during the regular season, but are we supposed to be relieved that Daniel Murphy–the offensive threat of Mark Lemke–might be the starting first baseman next year?  Or that Angel Pagan might be a regular outfielder? If, presumably, they can’t trade for help at every position where it’s needed, then where might it be coming from?

So everyone is prone to injury, the medical staff is incompetent, and the backups are better suited to the sporting goods department at Wal-Mart.  Yet it gets better.

In what had to be the effects of mounting pressure, the front office has no less distinguished themselves this year than Luis Castillo in the new Yankee Stadium.  To start off, they built the team a nice, new stadium.  It looks like Ebbets Field and plays like the Polo Grounds.  Home runs are about as scarce as no-hitters and Mets color scheme has largely been traded away for what I have to assume was on the bargain shelf at Home Depot.  And it only took until August to get some team photographs and pennants on the walls; of course, the Verizon, Subway, and Geico placards were up weeks before the season started.  If only Stengel could have commented on this place.  But the front office didn’t stop there.  As the season progressed, Minaya took verbal shots at a beat reporter, Tony Bernazard made hints he might need anger management help, and Jeff Wilpon, who recently decided he needed to be involved in the day-to-day operations of the team, has been all but written off as broke.

Could it be that the injuries simply revealed a broken system and aren’t entirely to blame for this outcome?

If the Mets plan on playing 500 baseball next year (forget about contending just now) they need to take some serious inventory.  But first, take a bath, pet a dog, light some candles– something to forget about all this.  I still think there are worse people than Minaya and Manuel to be in charge and a healthy season from some of this year’s MIA coupled with a good trade or two could effectively put this year in the rear-view mirror.  But it won’t be easy and it shouldn’t be a silent off-season.  The stage is yours, Omar.  Let us know what you are doing to fix things.

But until things turn around and our pride and image has been restored, David, please, please take off that handicapped helmet.

The NL Anti-All-Stars

My perennial complaining about all things All-Star will take a more quantitative approach this year.  After a few conversations with friends about some of the players being voted on the official All-Star roster–and how these players might actually be the opposite of All-Stars–I decided to look over all position players (and a few pitchers) in the NL for a true sampling of the worst. Some of the worst are obvious; they are having a bad year, their numbers are down, or their teams are performing poorly. And in some cases, an individual player may be labeled “The Best of the Antis,” meaning not only are they the contender for the worst at their position, but they have in some way hornswoggled their way to convincing the fans that they are arguably the best at their position and are either an actual All-Star or were serious contenders be on the official All-Star roster. So instead of complaining about Bud, the rules, the implications, or the fans, I’m going to construct my own team of MLB position-players who represent the worst of National League baseball.

1B: Ryan Howard nudges out Casey Kotchman and Lance Berkman for worst at first. Kotchman’s numbers are low, but he’s never been a big run prodoucer and he doesn’t have an error this season. And while Berkman is on hitting well below his career average, his whole team seems to be struggling. Howard is an admittedly tough choice, because he has produced a lot and NL first-basemen have been particularly good this year, in general. I’m focused on Howard’s low average (.252) and lowest OBP (.325) of any NL first-basemen. Then there are the strikeouts. Sorry Ryan. But you do get to make the Best of the Antis, having made our way onto the All-Star roster. 2nd choice: Whoever is manning first base for the New York Mets. Since Delgado went down in May, his replacements have produced absolutely nothing. In fact, they have even lost a few games for the Mets.

2B: Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins is the easy pick here with his combination of weak defense and poor offense. Uggla may have 15 HRs and 46 RBIs, but his average and on-base are dismal, no doubt supplied by ample strikeouts and flyballs. Uggla’s 7 errors don’t tell the whole story, either. He’s a poor second baseman at best, and his combination of limited range and insistence on backhanding routine ground balls firmly establishes him as a starter on the Antis. 2nd choice: Kelly Johnson. .286 OBP–need I say more?

3B: Emilio Bonifacio is young and the Marlins have tried him at a number of positions, but with 13 errors playing 3rd base and a .258 average (.303 OBP) with no power, he is the lock for the Antis starting lineup. Is my second choice, Mark Reynolds, a 3rd baseman? He’s played mostly at 3rd this season and is backing up Bonifacio. Reynolds gives the Antis some power, for sure, but his poor defense, mediocre average, and league-leading 111 strikeouts earns him a place. And if it’s decided he’s not a 3rd basemen, Garrett Atkins (.225 BA/.302 OBP) is probably available.

SS: Jimmy Rollins, who was nearly on the official All-Star team, has to be the Anti’s shortstop. Rollins is a good defensive shortstop, so I won’t paint that picture. But offensively, it’s hard to imagine him ever having a worse year. His power hasn’t completely disappeared, but the hits have. He’s OBP is a stunning .276, no doubt influenced by a .176 June batting average. JJ Hardy would be a logical pick to back-up Rollins (Hardy was also 3rd in voting at one point–what’s going on with shortstops this year?), but instead I’ll make my second choice Rafael Furcal. Batting 30 points below his average and not stealing any bases, he’s fallen under the Los Angeles radar, but that doesn’t mean he’s not an Anti-All-Star.

C:Jason Kendall will start for the Antis, as his .232 average with 0 HRs promises he won’t be a threat to get on base. And only throwing out 22% of runners, he won’t be a threat to anyone who decides to run, either. Around the 5th or 6th inning, we’ll give him a break and let the second choice, Bengie Molina, in for a few innings. While among the more powerful of catchers in the NL (10 HR, 47 RBI) all three walks he’s earned this season have dangerously suppressed his OBP to only 6 points higher than his average. Plus, he throws out runners at a lower rate than Kendall. On your marks’, get set, go!

OF: Alfonso Soriano, Milton Bradley, and Manny Ramirez. I know, I know, two Cubs in the outfield. But who could pass at the chance to field two individuals who are horribly inept defenseman and mediocre at the plate, combining to give Chicago a collective migraine this summer? Soriano’s OBP is less than .300–and he hits leadoff! Can the Antis ask for anything better. Hopefully a leadoff homerun will put the NL Antis up in the first inning. Bradley is equally questionable at the plate and in the field, but with the added bonus of being a basket case in the clubhouse. What would an Anti-All-Star game be without Milton assaulting one of the fans? Then there’s Manny. It’s no secret I’ve always kind of liked Manny. I like him a little less since his PED use was made public, but anyone who acts more clueless then plays as well as he does, all the while harmonizing the public’s cognitive dissonance between their All-Stars and the steroid-users has to be an Anti-All-Star. Plus, while Manny and Alfonso didn’t make the All-Star cut, they were serious contenders for most of the season and will represent the “Best of the Antis.”

A few more conventional outfield backups would be Brian Giles, Willy Taveras, and Daniel Murphy. Sorry, Brian, but it might be time to hang up the spikes for good. You’re 38 years old and not even batting .200–they don’t want to send you down to the minors. Things aren’t much better for Taveras. Former league-leaders in stolen bases don’t repeat with a .288 OBP and 15 walks in the first half of the season. Chances are he might get on base more if he never swung the bat at all. And Brian Murphy, the sophomore slump has set in as the Mets are running out of options and getting ready to audition you to be a pitcher. Offense is down, and your play in the outfield has cost the Mets more than one game. You clearly don’t belong in the outfield, yet you play there–all the evidence needed to make the Antis.

Pitching: Because Ian Snell was sent back to the minors (2-8, 5.36 ERA) Barry Zito will be starting for the Antis. Zito has won only 4 games this year and through 16 starts has barely been able to get his ERA below 5. While there are plenty of starters to choose from for the Antis–some with arguably worse numbers than Zito–Barry gets the nod because he presently being paid 18.5 million dollars to do his job. Backing up Zito will be the Washington Nationals bullpen.  19 blown saves in the first half of the season insures no chance of winning the Anti-All-Star game, and after all, isn’t that what this game is all about?

An Open Letter to MLB and Mrs. Goodwin

“Nothing… shall limit the Commissioner’s authority to act on any matters that involves the integrity of, or public confidence in, the national game of Baseball.”

 I can solve the steroids issue in major league baseball.  Well, I can try.

 It’s actually a very simple solution: Get to the root of the problem.  Bud Selig.  Though drugs in some form have likely been streaming through the veins of major league baseball players since the first time anyone thought they could gain an edge by ingesting something, steroids is indisputably linked to the present Commissioner, Bud Selig.  Announce the remainder of the players who tested positive for illegal substances, then fire Selig.  In fact, you can save a lot of time by doing it at the same press conference.

 Let’s take a quick stroll down memory lane, Bud.  Before there was the commissioner’s office there was collusion in the 1980s.  As acting commissioner we saw ratings tank, interleague play begin, and an abysmal 1994 season which featured the first cancelled World Series in 90 years. WWII couldn’t stop the World Series, but Bud can. 

 Things only worsened when Selig became the official Commissioner in 1998.  Viewership continued to decline, the leagues were consolidated, All-Star games lost their meaning (and gained new meaning), and numerous games became late-night television.  But what we will undoubtedly remember Selig for is his blind ignorance of rampant performance enhancing drug use.  No matter what Selig may claim regarding his knowledge of steroids, he is either mind-numbingly stupid or lying.  I suspect both.

 While Bud’s atrocities could go on and on—the latest being his lose-lose position of ruling on Manny Ramirez and the All-Star game—I’m here to solve the problem, not restate it.  But no matter how you slice it, Bud has failed to uphold even the most basic articles of the Major League Constitution. 

 “…act in the best interests of the national game of Baseball” 

 So we’ve dumped Bud–who can clean up this mess?

 Doris Kearns Goodwin—acclaimed author, historian, and baseball-enthusiast—that’s who.  Goodwin comes with a long and impressive list of accomplishments, many which would be suited to right the MLB ship and put the ugliness of the past two decades behind us.  Presented below is a small sample of her qualifications.

 1. Executive Understanding.  Goodwin has authored several histories and biographies, all focusing on presidential subjects.  By deeply and critically examining the decisions and leadership of figures like Lincoln, Roosevelt, Kennedy, and Johnson, Goodwin is intimately familiar with the executive, decision-making process.  Her writing has earned her numerous awards, including the Pulitzer Prize in 1995, and only serve to validate her ability to understand those in charge and the decisions they make.

 2. Baseball knowledge.  Goodwin comes with a firm understanding of baseball and its history.  This was clearly demonstrated in 1997 when she authored “Wait Till Next Year: A Memoir.”  Goodwin also served as a consultant and  contributor to Ken Burns’ Baseball, where, through interviews, she showed both her passion for the game and her knowledge of the sport.  Goodwin is a life-long fan of baseball and would bring decades of observations and intelligent thought to the post.

 3. The Underdog Appreciation.  Goodwin is a lifetime Brooklyn Dodger and Boston Red Sox fan, not necessarily putting her in a minority viewership, but not bringing to the position an illustrious background of supporting those who spend the most or win the most.  She’s a true fan, like so many of us, and it is within this mindset that she would be able to revitalize the game with decisions that reflect the best interest of the sport.  In an age where Americans are electing an African American President and more and more states are legalizing same-sex marriages, why not a competent, qualified female Commissioner of Baseball?

 Selig will be the commissioner through 2012, so we have some time to continue this debate.  But he has indicated that he will retire at that point and vetting suitable replacements should begin in the near future.  While I do not know Doris Kearns Goodwin personally and have nothing personal to gain by her becoming Commissioner, I do believe that she would make a strong candidate and executive though her sterling credentials and the change it would represent for our national pastime. Baseball owners, when considering your vote for the next Commissioner of Major League Baseball, please consider Doris Kearns Goodwin.

Sincerely,

Steve Midway

Amusement Parks

Maybe if I designed these things I would like them? Maybe if I had a personal tour of these things I would like them? Maybe if I were a ballplayer having to work in these things I would like them? But I’m the average fan, watching from home and occasionally going to a game, and I do not like these new-old stadiums.

This week Major League Baseball brings into its family of workspaces two new ballparks for the Mets and Yankees. These facilities are not stadiums as I am accustomed to saying, but rather ballparks where only baseball is to be played. We are to note this distinction. This style of ballpark debuted most recently with the opening of Camden Yards in 1992 as a response to the cookie-cutter and otherwise out-dated multi-use stadiums of past decades. I remember watching Camden Yards on opening day, and it was exciting to see something new and different, with a nod to history. But since 1992, the vast majority of new facilities have been constructed in the same manner: “old-style” and oversaturated with anything to distract you from watching the game. And to me, this outcome has essentially restructured the whole problem of cookie-cutter stadiums.

Most people will tell you they like these new ballparks. They are closer to the field, they are cleaner, they sell chow that seems to have been designed by Emeril Lagasse, and most importantly, if you don’t want to sit in your $75 seat and watch the game, there are plenty of other activities to chose from. Batting cages, pitching cages, hot tubs, shopping, restaurants—why not just go to Disney World and let a baseball fan use your seat?

What makes a baseball park special, to me, is not what kind of microbeer I can get at the Hard Rock Cafe (New Yankee Stadium), or if I can Build-A-Bear (Citizens Bank Park), but what has happened on that same field—that same dirt—in front of me. I couldn’t go to Shea Stadium without picturing Mookie Wilson’s slow roller up along first or to The Vet without running mental footage of Tug McGraw’s strikeout to win the World Series in 1980. Sure, history will be made in these new parks, but it just seems a waste to destroy these places because they don’t have a Custom T-Shirt Shop (U.S. Cellular Field) or swimming pool (Chase Field). Some places have needed replacement, be sure, but through more original architecture, or custom retro-fitting, couldn’t we have a more unique assemblage of ballparks? And it’s bad enough that we lose the history, but we have also lost the wonderful names of these distinctly American sites. It seems the only way to get a ballpark named after you anymore is to buy a bank.

A perfect example of all this was on ESPN’s broadcast of the inaugural game at Citi Field. Reporter Erin Andrews was sent roving to report from various parts of the new park and provide updates to the announcers. Aside from mentioning that she was closer to the game than in Shea Stadium, there was little mention of watching the game as she tucked into gourmet barbecue sandwiches and, at one point, actually wondered outside the stadium to a miniature version of the new park. Ten bucks if Andrews can tell me who won the game.

I realize I am arguing against consumerism and baseball owners, which makes me as about as American as baba ganoush, but I don’t see it that way. Typically, I’m not old-fashioned and I encourage campaigns to improve the game and the experience, but I like to see the layers of chipped paint on the stadium rails, wonder who was in my seat the day Ted Williams retired, eat a lukewarm hot dog around the 7th inning and watch the entire game. I didn’t crave a ride on the Ferris Wheel (Comerica Park) or a romp on the playground (Safeco Field). Now, with Camden yards a few years shy of 20, the only thing I am wondering is how long until they decide to commemorate it by tearing it down and building a new one.

NL East

The final post! As expected, I feel considerably less informed–or at least less certain–about the 2009 season than prior to these brief write-ups. Admittedly, I follow the NL East more than any other division and even here I have trouble coming up with any sound reasoning for my predictions. It’s hard, also, to try and tease out too much information from spring training–players have not yet regained their form, others are in the WBC, and many starters are playing less so that coaches and managers may see more of the prospects and players on the bubble. With this, I’ll be back to posting about twice monthly and looking forward to your comments and contributions.

1. New York
2. Philadelphia
3. Florida
4. Atlanta
5. Washington

The top of the NL East will likely go to either the Mets or Phillies again, but the Braves and Marlins should be improved, and, really, any of those teams can pose a threat if they get hot enough. After some deliberation, I selected the Mets to win the division for two reasons. First, they are a strong team that plugged a few of last season’s serious holes. And second—psychological issues or not—it’s hard to see this team this good losing three division titles in consecutive years. That being said, the elephant in the room has to be the two consecutive September collapses, easily New York’s biggest adversary at this point. Will Jerry Manuel make a difference as a manager in full season? Can Carlos Delgado continue with his 2008 second half performance? And come April, who will John Maine and Oliver Perez show up as?

To many, the Phillies are picked to win the division and my putting them in second has no great rationale. If anything, I’ve enjoyed these last few years of heightening Mets-Phillies rivalry. The Phils are still solid on paper and now more confidant than ever. While I don’t know what to make yet of Ibanez, I don’t think losing Burrell will leave them with any deficit. I know the hot-cold relationship the city has had with him many be missed, but not his inconsistency. The Phils got some great performances from some unsuspecting pitchers last year, and I would suspect that success in 2009 will be less dependent on any offensive attributes than the combined efforts of Myers, Blanton, and Moyer. What are we to reasonably expect from these three–inconsistency, earned runs, and old age, or maturity, innings and experience?

Florida, Florida, Florida. Watch out for Florida! That seems to be all I hear from many baseball reports. They are young, they are talented and they can win the division, we are told. Anyone can win the division in March. I was a little surprised at some of the personnel Florida got rid of this past off season, but I have to think that Michel Hill knows more about what’s better for the Marlins than I do. They should be exciting to watch this year and perhaps a surprise team, but will they go out and spend money if they need something come mid-summer? Will attendance hurt them more than anything? I suspect the Marlins will be competitive and a pain in the butt for other teams, but will they suffer from the same South Florida problems they have the last few years?

Poor Atlanta. They owned this division for 15 years and yet for the last few years haven’t been able to put enough wins together to ascend to third place. Atlanta made some moves this off season to improve their pitching–their obvious strength when they were collecting division titles like spare change. Starters Lowe and Kawakami should keep them in more games, however, they did nothing to bolster their offense, which, after Brian McCann, appears to be propped up by an ageing Chipper Jones and free-swinging Jeff Francoeur. Much like the Dodgers, though, the Braves biggest asset has to be their manager, Bobby Cox, who has to be scheming up something to try and prevent Atlanta from another 90-loss season.

I think that the Nationals anticipate more success than the rest of us see coming from them. They apparently have talent to spare in the outfield, and overall they are young and exciting, but there is very little proven talent on this team–particularly in their starting pitching. They virtually have to improve over last year’s (MLB’s worst) record, but I can’t identify any argument that puts them in anything beyond fourth place. If they overachieve and Atlanta and Florida suffer some major injuries, they may be able to flirt with third place, but so long as John Lannan is their ace, they won’t pose a divisional threat. Like so many small-market teams, they continue to field a young and inexperienced team and convince themselves that maturation is just around the corner.

NL Central

The first thing that comes to mind when thinking about the NL Central is lack of stratification among the teams. Every other division in baseball has one or two strong teams that have a relatively clear path to the top as well as some teams that will likely be plunging faster than the stock market. And to be sure, there are stronger and weaker teams in the NL Central, too, just not perceptibly as strong or weak as in other divisions. Here’s what I’m thinking.

1. Cubs

2. St. Louis

3. Pittsburgh

4. Cincinnati

5. Houston

6. Milwaukee

After last season, the Cubs have demonstrated they are capable of commanding the division. And equally capable of all-out collapse. Aside from dumping DeRosa—can anyone explain that to me?—their offense should resemble its 2008 form. And if Bradley fits in Chicago, look out. What I do worry about with the Cubs is their starting pitching. Zambrano is an ace anywhere, and aside from Lilly’s penchant for fly balls he should be reliable, but everyone else raises some questions. Harden could be the best No. 2 starter in the NL, but he’s out too much to be reliable. He averages only 17 starts a season (even with an optimistic 25 starts, who starts the remaining 10?) and doesn’t pitch late into games. Dempster had a career year in 2008, but is it unrealistic to think he can win 17 again? Who will the fifth starter be? All in all, Chicago’s not too far from a great rotation if they can coax some repeat performances and turn Marmol into a reliable closer. How things turn out below the Cubs is anyone’s guess.

Every team has some obvious strength and weakness and believes they have it in them to contend for at least the wild card. However, among the five remaining, St. Louis is arguable the most proven team. They have a respectable lineup featuring Pujols and the basis of a good rotation. With another great year from Lohse and a strong Carpenter and Wainwright back, they may be formidable. The Cardinals obvious weakness (and concern) is their bullpen, which was among the worst in baseball last year. Late-inning improvements will need to be made if they want to pose a threat to the Cubs or anyone else. What is predictable with the Cardinals is La Russa’s ability develop a no-name player while simultaneously destroying the career of an established veteran. Who will this year’s contestants be?

In truth, I have little reason to place the Pirates in third place. But I have no reason to put anyone else there, either. The Bus are young and exciting, which, to me, gives them points. I won’t compare them to the 2008 Rays, but they do have a couple starters capable of double-digit wins (Maholm, Duke, Snell) and a solid bullpen. The entire pitching staff is young, which means they may be durable, but they will also need to improve with age. They field well—fifth best in the NL last year—and led the league in assists. McLouth, LaRoche and Doumit are probably underrated in terms of hitting, but would likely need to have simultaneous career years to make up for the fact that Pittsburgh won’t be spending money on a middle-of-the-lineup bat. Don’t expect greatness from the Steel City in 2009, just the slight chance of a surprise. In addition, there are worse ways to spend a summer night than watching youth, enthusiasm, and good defense in a historic, small-market team.

Cincinnati, like Pittsburgh, is another team waiting for the future that just doesn’t seem to come. I’ve read a couple of articles lamenting the loss of both Dunn and Griffey, but don’t see this as a real concern. Aside from the home runs, neither batter above .245 and Dunn’s home runs were accompanied by numerous strikeouts. Like the Bucs, the Reds have a young offense—Votto, Phillips, and Bruce—that simply needs to improve with age and sould make up for the veteran loss. What’s underrated is the Reds rotation, particularly the front end of Harang, Volquez, and Arroyo. The Weathers-Cordero combination should also remain strong. I expect the Reds to be fun to watch and competing with the Pirates as the team to watch in 2010.

Houston is probably a better team than I give them credit for. They have an above-average offense, but likely not as potent as Chicago or even St. Louis considering the ups and downs of players like Tejada, Matsui, and Bourne. And considering that the Astros couldn’t even sign Wigginton or Wolf, it’s doubtful they would add anything significant. What’s more likely to be the story in Houston is the rotation. After Oswalt—still one of the best—there are some major concerns. Am I the only person who is worried about Hampton, a pitcher who hasn’t had a decent season in five years? He could be a bonus, but hardly reliable at this point in his career. Rodriguez, Backe, and Mohler (the remaining projected starters) are acceptable starters for fourth and fifth spots, but may struggle as they are called upon to fill the second and third spots. Paging Ben Sheets.

Although the Brewers are better than a last-place team, I have them here because they are the only team in the division that took a marked step backward during the offseason. So much of their success in 2008 was linked to the two people that will soon be a distant memory—Sabathia and Sheets. Even when the Brewers were contending last year, they weren’t dominating. They won their spot on the last day of the season after an embarrassing personnel change in the middle of September. Of all divisions, this one may be the hardest to predict the bottom of, and—perhaps unfairly—I have the Brewers are there. A solid offense and one or two promising starters could easily keep them out the basement, but I would be surprised to see them vying for a playoff spot come August. And now that we’ve settled down from last season, can we get the old, yellow-mitt logo back, please?

NL West

The west should be a marginally better division in 2009 than it was in 2008. It practically has to be. The division was won with 84 wins last year and had the winning team not imported Manny Ramirez at the last minute, .500 could have easily earned a playoff spot. While it’s easy to lament divisionally-poor play—especially if your 2nd or 3rd place team in another division suffers with a better record—that’s just they way divisions ebb and flow. The West may have—hopefully—hit rock bottom last year, and there are at least a few things to be excited about for this season.

1. Arizona

2. San Francisco

3. Los Angeles

4. Colorado

5. San Diego

Arizona played well for much of the season last year. They really took their foot off the gas at the end, and for that, lost a very winnable division. The Diamondbacks have a great front of their rotation and what could amount to a very competitive back end if Garland makes the transition and Scherzer comes to. But pitching isn’t really the concern for Arizona. The Diamondbacks were second in major league baseball in strikeouts in 2008 and the results was seriously diminished production. There are always some guys who will strikeout more than others, Reynolds, for example, and good teams can get around it. But having five guys with over 100 Ks (one over 200) not only helps the opposing teams immensely, but eliminates the possibility of productive outs. Just putting the bat on the ball for guys like Young and Upton will quickly reduce those strikeouts and lead to more hits and productive outs. And with a productive—not even powerful—offense, Arizona has the pitching to carry them into October.

As I’m writing this, Manny Ramirez has just agreed to the Dodgers and I still have no inkling of switching the Giants with the Dodgers. If you know me, you know I prefer good pitching over good hitting. And the Giants have good pitching. Just imagine if Johnson can stay above .500 and Zito has flashbacks of brilliance! While the Giants could be on the level with Arizona as far as pitching is concerned, they have to be weaker offensively; the Giants offense is truly amateur hour. The best-case scenario would be that a healthy Rentaria, Rowand and Winn could keep them in enough games to stay competitive and—more importantly—encourage Sabean to sign a legitimate cleanup hitter, especially if they are still in the mix by mid summer. It’s hard to see them going very far with this lineup, but wins could build up against the weaker teams in the division and Johnson could have enough in the tank for one last hurrah.

The Dodgers took one step backward this offseason. The step was a little smaller with the signing of Manny, but still backward. Their starting pitching is considerably shallower than last season and with the departure of Lowe and Penny the new guys will have a lot of innings to make up for. The Dodgers lineup might actually be one of the better ones in the West, but that’s still counting on the young guys to up their production and for Manny to produce like he did for the Dodgers last year. I’m actually a huge fan of Manny as a player, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to have him stealing the headlines mid-summer if the Dodgers have shown no inclination to compete and Manny decides he doesn’t want to spend his remaining years closing in on the bottom of a weak division. If the Dodgers have something going for them, it has to be Joe Torre. Like him or not, he wins and if he can pull a rabbit out of his hat in 2009, nobody will be talking about the problems with their rotation.

Losing Holliday and Francis this offseason may have stamped the Rockies ticket to fourth place. Colorado should have a healthy Helton back, but Holliday (.321, 25, 88) can’t be replaced and it’s hard to see their overall offense improving much. Perhaps the bigger blow was the loss of Francis this spring. Although limited in his effectiveness last season, Francis is a huge part of the Rockies rotation, a rotation which now weighs heavily (and maybe entirely) on Aaron Cook. Jimenez will need a breakout year and Marquis will have to be more than the question mark he is every spring to compensate for Francis, but I wouldn’t have my hopes up if I were a Rockies fan.

San Diego didn’t do much in the offseason—other than try to unload their best pitcher. I’m betting in 2009 that they can lose one more game than they did in 2008 to reach the 100-loss mark. With all due respect to Brian Giles, Gonzalez is the only threat in an otherwise impotent lineup. Blanco and Eckstein shouldn’t change the outcome, just the formula. Peavy continues to shine though he’ll be gone as soon as the Padres can find someone to meet their demands. Until then, he’ll win every fifth day, which I suspect to be most of the Padres wins. Young is respectable, but the remainder of the rotation and bullpen are unknowns. Bud Black has one more year on his contract and I imagine by August he’ll be counting the days.

AL East

It feels good to hate the Yankees again! Yes, after an offseason of spending in New York, the new-look Yankees plan on contending—big time. Anything short of a Championship is unacceptable, we are told. Yet Boston remains the team to beat and Tampa Bay would love to prove that 2008 wasn’t a fluke. Chances are Baltimore and Toronto will fade away—around the middle of April or so—and we’ll have an old fashioned divisional race for most of the season with at least two (and quite possibly three) strong teams. 

 1. Boston

2. Tampa Bay

3. New York

4. Baltimore

5. Toronto

Boston is still a very good team. World Champs two years ago and nearly pennant winners last year, there’s no good reason why Boston won’t be in the mix throughout the year. Boston is dangerously complete across the field, particularly when Lowell returns. Penny is still a question mark in my opinion, but they can afford that so long as he’s pitching 5th. And if he has any success recalling his former self, he’ll be the best number 5 starter in the AL. Most of the concerns I’ve heard about Boston this offseason focus on injuries to positions players. Sure this is something to worry about, but no one has been lost for the season and they still have a ton of money to use should there be a demonstrated need. The Boston bench will be out to prove themselves, and the wins may be tougher against a solid division (and maybe even upgraded Central), but they have to personnel and experience to make picking against them a tough choice.

While it’s easy to think that Tampa Bay has proven themselves in the fundamental way that suggests they will be contending for years to come, I don’t see them as competitive as they were in 2008. What they had last year, in addition to solid play, was the fact they they were Tampa Bay—chronic underachievers. Everything good thing that happened was amazing, unprecedented, and motivating and helped push them to the pennant. That force is gone and will need to be replaced be a slight improvement in play, if they are to repeat.

On paper, it’s hard to come up with reasons to put the Yankees in third place. They spent major money in the offseason to fill glaring gaps, and are newly strong in starting pitching and hitting. While it’s anyones guess as to what happens this summer in New York, I believe the Yankees will be fun to watch simply because of the expectations placed on them. In lieu of a prediction—strengths and weaknesses—I’m simply going to explore a few scenarios that could pop up this season. Despite some true career highlights, CC entered May last year going 1–4 with a 7.88 ERA. Try doing that in New York. AJ Burnett, another major offseason pickup, will also be fun to watch under pressure. Burnett signed a tremendous contract for a guy who has only won more than 12 games once in a 10-year career. He’s also never really played on a contender or in must-win situations, having sat out nearly all of 2003 in Florida. The Yankees also didn’t address their bullpen in the offseason, something that could come back to haunt them if the starters are puling their weight but the wins aren’t coming. And while there are other scenarios to keep an eye out for, the last one I’ll mention simply has to be A-Rod. If Rodriguez overachieves this season, there will be some questioning. And if he underachieves, there will be some scrutinizing. How will be handle himself and his teammates? Big payrolls equal big egos and in the end, the Yankees could be taken down by their own chemistry.

The Orioles may play better than they did in 2008, but it’s apparent that they don’t have the depth to compete with the Sox, Rays, and Yankees. Baltimore is very young term, interspersed with mediocre veterans. A number of position players had decent numbers in 2008, but somehow, the mix just doesn’t work. Roberts, Markakis, Huff, and Mora are solid players, but the remainder of the lineup is weak. And, with all due respect to the run producers, they don’t constitute a presence in the lineup that causes the opposing team to change strategy much. Compound this with an untested rotation and I predict Baltimore will see its 12th straight losing season in 2009.

Toronto has been mediocre in recent years—years that may soon be thought of fondly. Outside of Halladay, the now Burnett-less rotation can’t compete with the remainder of the division. And the offense is likely to suffer as well. 2008 team leaders in offense could be had for the meager production of .291, 20 HR, and 79 RBIs. While this may improve slightly, the Jays don’t have personnel put up any memorable numbers. Toronto picked up virtually no one in the offseason, which in 2009 is practically a baseball sin. Expect them to pay for it, too, with a long, bottom-feeding summer.

AL Central

Over the last few years, the races in the AL Central have been among the best in the league. For example, the White Sox won the division last year in Chicago in a 1-0 Division playoff game against the Twins. Turns out that the game would have been played in Minnesota had the 2009 rules been in effect. And who could forget 2006, when the Twins became the first team to win the division on the last day of the season without ever having previously been in first place during the season. In a division with five teams there is bound to be some disappointment, but, by the same logic, there is also an increased chance for competition at the top. I see the AL Central settling out to be something like this:

1. Minnesota

2. Cleveland

3. Kansas City

4. Chicago

5. Detroit

Love ‘em or hate ‘em, the Twins have been fun to watch ever since 2001, when they roughly took their present form. They are solid fundamentally and I have trouble finding glaring problems with any aspect of their game. With Cuddyer (hopefully) back and the addition of All-Star Joe Crede the lineup should only improve, even if that improvement is only slight. The Twins didn’t have a great defense last year, but that’s to be expected when fielding one of the youngest teams—particularly in the outfield—in the league. And with few changes in a solid pitching staff, I expect the Twins to win the AL Central the way they have in the past—without fanfare or fireworks.

Mark DeRosa may prove to be the best offseason acquisition by any AL team. It certainly stands to wonder why the Cubs let him go. Combine this with the additions of Kerry Wood, Carl Pavano, Travis Hafner, and Victor Martinez and I don’t see how you can’t be excited as an Indians fan. Expectations are high after last year, and why not; there are countless examples of teams who have shed a franchise player and have gone on to compete and even improve. The Indians certainly have it in them to contend and the main reason I have them in second place and not first is simply consistency and the unknown impact of a fresh lineup.

The Royals—like Texas in the West—are my team to watch. I poured over individual and team statistics to try and find justification for them to be the Tampa Bay Rays of 2009. I couldn’t find it, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t there. Meche, Greinke, Bannister, and Davies likely won’t be leading the league in wins or ERA, but they are young and solid, traits that may even be better than statistics. They have demonstrated an ability to pitch a lot of innings and and post double-digit wins. If the Royals can turn out solid starts and maintain their capable bullpen presence from last year (even with some new additions), they should easily be able to keep their team in games. The offense is what needed the real work (12th in 2008), though I doubt Mike Jacobs can do enough to really bump up production. Without another bat in the lineup, he may be limited and I would liked to have seen the Royals go after someone else, even a short-term Abreu or Dunn would have helped.

Most people didn’t think the White Sox would be competitive last year. And without Carlos Quentin (.288, 36, 100 in 130 games) I doubt they would have been. The Sox also significantly cooled off in the second half last year (partly without Quentin, I might add) and coasted to a divisional tie by playing one game over .500 in the second half. Without any major additions, I’m banking on Carlos cooling off and a few less wins against the upgraded Indians and Royals.

After virtually being crowned as World Series Champs last March, the Tigers opened the season going 0–7 and, in my opinion, never really recovered. How could such a thing happen, we asked? I believe the Tigers have an age-identity issues. That is, the Tigers have tremendous young talent, but have felt compelled to import All-Stars from the 1990s—namely Renteria, Sheffield, and Rodriguez. Is it related to the fact these people played for Leyland a decade ago in Florida? Surely a team needs balance; youth and enthusiasm tempered by experience and wisdom, but this mix that Detroit has concocted simply doesn’t work. I respect Jim Leyland—chain smoking and everything–but I think he needs to take a serious look at the young talent on this team and shed some of the veterans. There’s potential in Detroit, but potential doesn’t win games. And I doubt the Tigers will either.

AL West

Today begins the first of six Friday posts that will each feature one major league division. I’m opting to go West to East and AL to NL, for no real reason. These predictions are worthless, in my opinion, just as any prediction is. It’s all a lot of talk just to get the gears primed for the regular season. Feel free to tell me where I’m wrong, or email your own predictions and I’ll include them.

1. Los Angeles

2. Texas

3. Oakland

4. Seattle

I wish there were something more exciting to look into regarding the AL West, but the simple fact is that not much has happened during the offseason to challenge the Angeles recent dominance. I see the Angeles as definately losing something with the departure of Teixeira and K-Rod, but they are still a solid core of guys spending a lot of the season beating up on three weaker teams. The Angeles know how to win (in the regular season, at least) and I don’t see why that won’t change in 2009.

Hopefully, Texas will challenge Los Angeles more than they did as a second place team last year. They can obviously hit—something that shouldn’t change this year even with the departure of Bradley—but there is also no reason to think their pitching will have improved at all from last year. A 1-2 punch of Millwood and Padilla is hardely a threat as both continue to get older and post higher and higher ERAs. And the young arms that will likely filter into the rotation during the year can in no way be seen as credible at this point. There certainly could be a surprise or two, but not five. Hopefully Texas—a team similar to the 2006 Phillies—can slug their way up the standings.

Oakland has been a challenge to understand for the past several years, and 2009 is no exception. Beane’s young roster was overachieving until the past few seasons. Is it a coincidence that they have also provided so many contenders with trade-deadline players? I suppose it’s unwise to ever forecast a Billy Beane team, but I don’t know how they will have dramatically improved from last year. Holliday and Giambi should bump them up from being the worst offense in the AL, but with Harden and Blanton out of the rotation, it’s hard to expect anything more than mediocre pitching from such a young group of starters.

And even with Griffey, it’s hard to see the Mariners contending. They have to be better than last season, especially their pitching. Most people think Bedard will step up this year, and I agree that he is a much better pitcher than what Seattle saw last year (when they rarely saw him). But their offense is still questionable, as is their closer. They also wouldn’t suffer from a new logo. How great would it be to see Junior on opening day sporting the old royal blue and gold?

In my opinion, a lot of the AL West’s play can be explained by youth. There is a lot of young pitching in this division, and should one team be able to develop a couple guys ahead of schedule, they could give the Angeles a run for their money. But at this point, the Angeles have been on cruise control for so long it’s hard to see that happening. The biggest question in this division I think will be the Rangers. In a division with stronger pitching, I wouldn’t have predicted 2nd place. But coming off a confident second half and with a strong offense, they are a threat. If one or two bats go quiet, however, and the rotation pitches anything below average, they could easily be spending a lot of time near the bottom.